Thinking about that Canadian Coffee Contest

SOCIAL STUDIES - March 10th 2008

Okay, so I would like to think that I tackle the big issues of society in these pages. Life the Universe and Everything is, after all, a pretty daunting subject; but during a bout of our never-ending freezing rain I was sitting in the newly renovated Tim Horton's in Riverview with a friend and, laughingly, we came up with the column.

To be fair, it was his idea, so I owe him a coffee. And although at first this might seem like fluff, the more I edit, the less I am sure.

. . . Have you won anything at Tim Horton's yet?

If you work the math backwards on a Tim Horton's "Roll up the Rim" cup you find some pretty interesting facts.

First off, there are a little over 31 million prizes to be won; and there are a little more than 31 million Canadians. Is this a coincidence or a clever bit of social engineering?

In a sort of roundabout way the coffee chain is suggesting that each and every Canadian is going to win a prize.

One might be tempted to think of it as merely coincidence unless you look at the other side of the coin - each of us has a one in nine chance of winning; it says so in the fine print; but what grabs us first is the sheer number of prizes compared to the population - not the inconceivable odds of getting something good.

For that matter, why did they not choose one out of every 10?

Probably for the same reason that Wal-Mart sells everything for $19.99, or that P.T. Barnum was such a success; "There is a sucker born every minute" as he used to say. We walk into the any department store and say to ourselves, well, at least it's not $20 dollars, and we buy it; forgetting that now we will have to do something with the penny that weighs our coat pocket down.

When it comes to a contest, the smaller the odds, the better we like it, and so we are compelled to play because at least this is better than one out of every 10.

Let's look at this a little closer: There are actually some 32 million people living in Canada, so a whole million of them are just plain out of luck; but at the same time, a one in nine chance to win one of 31 million prizes means that there are about 279 million cups out there.

From previous experience I know that they begin to run out of cups before the contest is over, so we can conclude that over the next month or so this company alone is going to sell 279 million coffees at a rough average of a dollar and a half per cup, or $418 million.

Just as an aside, the average worker in Guatemala gets about 50 cents per pound of coffee, which is then made into about 100 cups on average and sold for $150; it is almost as lucrative as popcorn.

(as a corrective - I was informed by the coffee industry that my estimate was a little "weak". Tim Horton's uses way more coffee per cup in order to ensure quality, and so only brings in about $39 per pound. Also, it is the farmer who receives .50 per pound, there is a whole supply/prep/roast chain of people in between... my apologies for the mistakes)

So we have all these cups of coffee out there; probably in fact, way more than are sold at any other time during the year. Which should tell us two things: first, this is not a contest, it is an advertising campaign; they will, if everyone does win, pay out $35 million in prizes while bringing in $385 million in sales; and we would do well to remember that. Secondly, since there are about 19 per cent of us who are too young to drink coffee, we have to drink an additional six million cups as adults. So each and every Canadian who falls into the age of majority must buy and consume over 10 cups of coffee each in order for all of us to win a prize. Some people don't drink coffee, so I will drink theirs and increase my odds.

It should also be pointed out that this innocuous little business is catering to something more than desire; it is just possible that what we are dealing with, after multiple millions of caffeinated beverages, is addiction.

Chris Gahan at "The Humour Bin" developed a simple quiz to determine if you might be ADD (or suffering from Alertness Deficit Disorder) He points out that if you do have this disease missing just one trip to Tim Horton's could be fatal.

There are quite a few questions in the quiz, but here are the top 10: 1. Do you use coffee to escape from your problems?

2. Do you eat spoonfuls of instant coffee because it's easier?

3. Have you ever woken up in a puddle of your own coffee?

4. Do you find that it's easier to drink more coffee than go to sleep?

5. a) Have you ever drunk cold coffee?

b) Right out of the pot?

6. Do you spend more than 20 per cent of your income on coffee and/or coffee related products?

7. Do you need coffee: a) to get up in the morning?

b) to get out of bed?

c) to be injected intravenously to stimulate blood-flow?

8. Does the phrase "Swiss water decaffeinated" strike terror into your heart?

9. Do you have a coffee maker in more than one room of your house?

a)in more than five?

10. Do you salivate uncontrollably whenever you hear dripping water?

The truth is, people just do not understand the mystical nature of coffee. It can bring clarity, peace, and understanding into the world.

I know I feel a lot better after 10 cups. The funny thing is, I still haven't won anything.

Another friend of mine has a bumper sticker, and since I am borrowing ideas left and right from friends I will share it with you: "Lottery: A tax on people who can't do math." Still, it is good coffee.